Experimental NINO3.4 Forecast to November 2015

Based on the methodology I have developed looking at correlations between Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), I have developed  an experimental forecast of Nino3.4 SSTA to November 2015.  This is purely experimental.  

Based on this forecast, I expect to see a continuation of neutral ENSO conditions through to  June 2013, followed by strong El Nino conditions through to June 2014, with a mild to moderate La Nina developing from about September 2014, persisting into early 2015.  

This forecast is based on a correlation between the AAO and Nino3.4 SSTA data from 1990 to 2012.  

The Weather Nerd is here…

As my friends and family will attest, I am an unashamed weather nerd, interested in most things meteorological, but mostly tropical weather and climate phenomena that affects my home town in North Queensland, Australia.

I make predictions, analyse trends in historical data, and generally comment on stuff that affects the north; sometimes I even predict something with a reasonable degree of accuracy, while at other times, the prediction bears little or no resemblance to what actually happens.  I make no apologies for this as this blog is more a means of gathering ideas, data, images, etc. that relate to my nerdish obsession than a platform for sharing any authoritative warnings or advice – as always, in the event of extreme weather, people should take warnings and advice from the appropriately trained professional meteorologists at the Bureau of Meteorology.

That said, anyone who is interested in learning about tropical meteorology may find this site kind of useful, as it is my intention to present an overview of all things meteorological in fairly simple terms, or at the very least, in simpler terms than the meteorologists themselves.